With the economy in the US tanking, the fear is growing as to how hard it will hit the Canadian economy. Ontario is already showing signs that they will be hit the hardest with job loss in the manufacturing sector. TD released a report today predicting that Ontario is on it's way to 'have not' status within the next two years. The policy that the federal government is to make sure funding is available for each province to provide the same level of basic service is enshrined in the constitution. The labels of 'have and have-not' play a huge role in how each province is perceived across the country. Labeling the economic engine of Canada a have not province would be a tremendous embarrassment.
As can be expected the public reaction has been to reinforce previous held stereotypes about government and inter-provincial relations. Different levels of government are being blamed for tanking Ontario, with congratulations for other provinces for shifting the economic power outside the traditional power base.
For the average person who just follows the headlines the most important detail is being overlooked. The equalization payment formula has just been revised. These changes add to the economic strength of provinces like Newfoundland & Alberta without changing their economies. Ontario is not declining in as much as they are not able to benefit from the skyrocketing price of oil as other provinces have.
Ontario is heading into some tough economic times. The Ontario economy needs to be evaluated on standard economic benchmarks such as unemployment. Using the equalization formula that has just changed is irresponsible and misleading. To stimulate the economy real economic factors must be considered. If the public and politicians use the politically negotiated equalization formula as the key indicator, they will make the wrong decisions.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Ghosts & Fiscal Responsibility
A report came out this week that predicted that government revenues may be less than estimated and could result in a deficit. The Liberals have seized the opportunity to blame the government for fiscal mismanagement. The fact they missed an opportunity to stop this budget for their own political gain will be glossed over if the doom and gloom ever comes to pass.
Newly elected Associate Finance critic Martha Hall Findlay decided to take her own shots by claiming all Conservative Prime Ministers since 1918 have run deficit budgets. This statement demonstrates a lack of understanding of Canadian history both economic and political.
Counter cyclical financing was adopted by the government with support from the economic community. The government would run small surpluses when times are good and deficits when the economy needed stimulation. While the consequences of such decisions can be judged by history it is unfair to blame governments for following the advise of experts at the time. In our more developed economy the Bank of Canada uses interest rates and other available fiscal and monetary tools to help control the rate of growth of the economy. There are still those who subscribe to the old philosophy, that the government should be running a small deficit to help counter the economic downturn resulting from the problems with the American economy.
The accounting processes used now are far more complex than they used to be. Statistics Canada has revised all the budget data since confederation through 1975 to better reflect today's accounting rules. This involved adding both revenue and expenditures from what were once considered non-budgetary accounts into their proper spaces. The conclusions from these revisions are that Paul Martin and Stephen Harper are the only two Prime Ministers in Canadian history to not have run a deficit while serving as PM. The trends also indicate that surpluses were a result of the economic times rather than which party was in charge. There were large deficits through WWI & WWII followed by the larger deficits under Diefenbaker and Trudeau as they helped advance the welfare state. Major surpluses were during the post war boom of the 1920s and 1950s.
One of the problems the Liberals have had slinging mud at the Conservatives is that they reach too far into the past. Placing blame on the current government for events that happened 15 -20 years ago does not change voter's perception on government performance. Bob Rae now sits on the Liberal front bench. People still remember the deficit he ran up in Ontario. In the debate in the last provincial election Premier Dalton McGuinty still blamed him for some of the problems his government is dealing with.
Martha Hall Findlay, enjoy your stay in Ottawa. There are plenty of valid points of reasonable discourse for criticising the government. Stirring up ghosts will not help bring the Liberals to power.
Newly elected Associate Finance critic Martha Hall Findlay decided to take her own shots by claiming all Conservative Prime Ministers since 1918 have run deficit budgets. This statement demonstrates a lack of understanding of Canadian history both economic and political.
Counter cyclical financing was adopted by the government with support from the economic community. The government would run small surpluses when times are good and deficits when the economy needed stimulation. While the consequences of such decisions can be judged by history it is unfair to blame governments for following the advise of experts at the time. In our more developed economy the Bank of Canada uses interest rates and other available fiscal and monetary tools to help control the rate of growth of the economy. There are still those who subscribe to the old philosophy, that the government should be running a small deficit to help counter the economic downturn resulting from the problems with the American economy.
The accounting processes used now are far more complex than they used to be. Statistics Canada has revised all the budget data since confederation through 1975 to better reflect today's accounting rules. This involved adding both revenue and expenditures from what were once considered non-budgetary accounts into their proper spaces. The conclusions from these revisions are that Paul Martin and Stephen Harper are the only two Prime Ministers in Canadian history to not have run a deficit while serving as PM. The trends also indicate that surpluses were a result of the economic times rather than which party was in charge. There were large deficits through WWI & WWII followed by the larger deficits under Diefenbaker and Trudeau as they helped advance the welfare state. Major surpluses were during the post war boom of the 1920s and 1950s.
One of the problems the Liberals have had slinging mud at the Conservatives is that they reach too far into the past. Placing blame on the current government for events that happened 15 -20 years ago does not change voter's perception on government performance. Bob Rae now sits on the Liberal front bench. People still remember the deficit he ran up in Ontario. In the debate in the last provincial election Premier Dalton McGuinty still blamed him for some of the problems his government is dealing with.
Martha Hall Findlay, enjoy your stay in Ottawa. There are plenty of valid points of reasonable discourse for criticising the government. Stirring up ghosts will not help bring the Liberals to power.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
TDSB pools running on empty
Once upon a time there was a home owner who loved having a swimming pool. They moved and could not have a swimming pool in the new home. They were comforted by a friend who told them if they ever missed the swimming pool they could fill up their bathtub with water and toss money in it.
TDSB has been facing this dilemma for many years as they tried to operate their 78 swimming pools. They did not have a mandate to offer this community service so they would not receive funding from the Ministry of Education. The City of Toronto provided limited funding to help pay for the maintenance of the pools. On Friday TDSB faced reality and announced the closing of 23 pools this year and 16 pools next summer for a total annual savings of $4 million.
This is simply a case of bureaucratic red tape. The pools provided an important community service by providing the skills to prevent drownings. It also provided healthy recreation in an era where child obesity appears to be a primary concern. The big question is what is going to happen
on a hot summer day when the city realizes that there are not enough swimming pools. Will they try to build more or simply shrug their shoulders and blame a different level of government. Somebody should have stepped up and acted in the best interest of the citizens of Toronto, instead of the best interests of their individual bureaucratic department. Such short sightedness will only cause harm in the future.
TDSB has been facing this dilemma for many years as they tried to operate their 78 swimming pools. They did not have a mandate to offer this community service so they would not receive funding from the Ministry of Education. The City of Toronto provided limited funding to help pay for the maintenance of the pools. On Friday TDSB faced reality and announced the closing of 23 pools this year and 16 pools next summer for a total annual savings of $4 million.
This is simply a case of bureaucratic red tape. The pools provided an important community service by providing the skills to prevent drownings. It also provided healthy recreation in an era where child obesity appears to be a primary concern. The big question is what is going to happen
on a hot summer day when the city realizes that there are not enough swimming pools. Will they try to build more or simply shrug their shoulders and blame a different level of government. Somebody should have stepped up and acted in the best interest of the citizens of Toronto, instead of the best interests of their individual bureaucratic department. Such short sightedness will only cause harm in the future.
Banning cars, one crime at a time
Yesterday, David Miller launched a Youtube/facebook campaign for the federal government to ban handguns. The provincial Liberals have also been long time supporters on a ban on hand guns.
Liberal MPP Mike Colle decided to take action by introducing a private members bill. The bill calls for drivers license suspension as well as impounding cars found with illegal handguns. The focus on banning handguns has been used as an excuse for different levels of government not to deal with issues that result in kids turning to a life of crime. This bill does nothing to make the streets safer.
Cars are impounded if a driver is caught without a valid license. The onus is on the owner of the vehicle to verify that someone using their car has a valid license. The government has recently implemented racing laws where speeding 50 km/h over the speed limit results in a car being automatically being impounded for a week. Despite the risk police are still impounding cars. If a person has no fear in carrying and presumably using an illegal gun, why would they fear the loss of driving privileges. They should be afraid of facing the justice system. The police should be focusing having these offenders put in jail.
A few weeks ago there was a shooting on the TTC. Will the government consider taking away metropasses for criminals who do not commit their crimes in cars? The government will be introducing a ban on smoking in cars with children present. Will the punishment also be to have license suspension and cars impounded?
Punishments must fit the crime. This trend to solve the worlds problems by simply punishing drivers and car owners is short sighted. There are times when such action is appropriate. This does not make it the solution to every problem.
Liberal MPP Mike Colle decided to take action by introducing a private members bill. The bill calls for drivers license suspension as well as impounding cars found with illegal handguns. The focus on banning handguns has been used as an excuse for different levels of government not to deal with issues that result in kids turning to a life of crime. This bill does nothing to make the streets safer.
Cars are impounded if a driver is caught without a valid license. The onus is on the owner of the vehicle to verify that someone using their car has a valid license. The government has recently implemented racing laws where speeding 50 km/h over the speed limit results in a car being automatically being impounded for a week. Despite the risk police are still impounding cars. If a person has no fear in carrying and presumably using an illegal gun, why would they fear the loss of driving privileges. They should be afraid of facing the justice system. The police should be focusing having these offenders put in jail.
A few weeks ago there was a shooting on the TTC. Will the government consider taking away metropasses for criminals who do not commit their crimes in cars? The government will be introducing a ban on smoking in cars with children present. Will the punishment also be to have license suspension and cars impounded?
Punishments must fit the crime. This trend to solve the worlds problems by simply punishing drivers and car owners is short sighted. There are times when such action is appropriate. This does not make it the solution to every problem.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
York University accomodation of Jewish Students under attack
For the last 34 years York University has had a policy of closing for up to three days each year for the Jewish holidays of Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippor. When this policy began a large percentage of students and professors would take these days off anyways.
York History Professor and non-practising Jew, David Noble has been a long time detractor of York's policy. He filed a complaint with the Ontario Human Rights Commission claiming it was unfair in a multicultural society to accommodate one group's religious beliefs.
A report on the topic has been prepared for the Human Rights Commission. It concluded that the policy is discriminatory because it provides preferential treatment based on creed. York University has a policy that no student is to be penalized for keeping their religious holidays.
Hopefully the HRC will be able to take more factors into consideration when making their decision. The Jewish calendar works in such a way that in a four week period around September/October religious Jewish students could end up missing a total of 7 days worth of classes to religious holidays. This can be a tremendous strain at the beginning of the school year or approaching midterms. Having the extra 3 days off worry free helps reduce the problems created from trying to play catch up. There are many students who take this rule into consideration when they choose York over the universities that do not offer such accommodation.
York University is closed for all Christian holidays. They are even closed on Easter Monday which is a holiday not recognized by the private sector. The accommodation provided by York simply reverses indirect discrimination created by the nature of the regular calendar.
The HRC should also take into consideration who has launched the complaint. If the complaint came from or was supported by other religious groups who are being discriminated against, it would have a lot more credibility. This appears to be a case of someone upset that any religious accommodation would be offered to anyone.
Hopefully the HRC will rule wisely in such a way that will allow the rule to stand. The Public school system already supports Catholic beliefs above all others. It would be a shame to for university administrators to carry out the same level of discrimination.
York History Professor and non-practising Jew, David Noble has been a long time detractor of York's policy. He filed a complaint with the Ontario Human Rights Commission claiming it was unfair in a multicultural society to accommodate one group's religious beliefs.
A report on the topic has been prepared for the Human Rights Commission. It concluded that the policy is discriminatory because it provides preferential treatment based on creed. York University has a policy that no student is to be penalized for keeping their religious holidays.
Hopefully the HRC will be able to take more factors into consideration when making their decision. The Jewish calendar works in such a way that in a four week period around September/October religious Jewish students could end up missing a total of 7 days worth of classes to religious holidays. This can be a tremendous strain at the beginning of the school year or approaching midterms. Having the extra 3 days off worry free helps reduce the problems created from trying to play catch up. There are many students who take this rule into consideration when they choose York over the universities that do not offer such accommodation.
York University is closed for all Christian holidays. They are even closed on Easter Monday which is a holiday not recognized by the private sector. The accommodation provided by York simply reverses indirect discrimination created by the nature of the regular calendar.
The HRC should also take into consideration who has launched the complaint. If the complaint came from or was supported by other religious groups who are being discriminated against, it would have a lot more credibility. This appears to be a case of someone upset that any religious accommodation would be offered to anyone.
Hopefully the HRC will rule wisely in such a way that will allow the rule to stand. The Public school system already supports Catholic beliefs above all others. It would be a shame to for university administrators to carry out the same level of discrimination.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Playing in the Political Sandbox
Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty held a press conference in Toronto today to try and 'convince' the Ontario Government to reduce the corporate tax rate in tomorrow's budget. Flaherty is well aware that budget's are extremely complex calculations that take months of planning. Such a drastic change in policy could not be adopted and ready to implement in a single night. His provincial counterpart Dwight Duncan was quick to call Flaherty on his political grandstanding and pointed out that citizens rejected the tax cut philosophy "in 03 and 07". Technically the Liberal mandate endorsed tax hikes that occurred in the Liberal's first mandate and status quo on taxes for now. Nobody will argue that the Liberals got reelected on their tax policy.
With election fever peeking in early spring the feud between Ontario & Ottawa over how to structure their counterparts budget has grown. People have a tendency to place blame for the feud based on which philosophy they happen to agree with. This ignores key elements of the feud.
When McGuinty was elected in 2003 he argued as a Liberal he was the best person to work with a federal Liberal government to best serve Ontario's needs. In the end it made very little difference. During the last federal election Martin did not want to be scene anywhere near the unpopular Premier.
McGuinty has long complained about the feds not giving enough money to the country's economic engine. There was the $26 billion in taxes that we not coming back to Ontario. He joined in on 1% GST and gas tax going to municipalities. McGuinty wants the Harper to cut GHG without in any negative results for the Ontario manufacturing sector. When Toronto, the economic engine of Ontario asked the province for money, McGuinty gave them new taxing powers and told them to deal with their own problems.
This game between Queen's Park and Ottawa has gotten old fast. They each have their own responsibilities and tax payers expect them to do them. When kids can't play together nicely in a sandbox the parents need to have them removed. McGuinty already has his mandate to stay and play until 2011. Sometime in the next year and a half Harper/Flaherty will have to answer to voters. If everyone can play together nicely, we can have an effective strategy for dealing with the consequences of the United States tanking their own economy.
If only it could be that easy.
With election fever peeking in early spring the feud between Ontario & Ottawa over how to structure their counterparts budget has grown. People have a tendency to place blame for the feud based on which philosophy they happen to agree with. This ignores key elements of the feud.
When McGuinty was elected in 2003 he argued as a Liberal he was the best person to work with a federal Liberal government to best serve Ontario's needs. In the end it made very little difference. During the last federal election Martin did not want to be scene anywhere near the unpopular Premier.
McGuinty has long complained about the feds not giving enough money to the country's economic engine. There was the $26 billion in taxes that we not coming back to Ontario. He joined in on 1% GST and gas tax going to municipalities. McGuinty wants the Harper to cut GHG without in any negative results for the Ontario manufacturing sector. When Toronto, the economic engine of Ontario asked the province for money, McGuinty gave them new taxing powers and told them to deal with their own problems.
This game between Queen's Park and Ottawa has gotten old fast. They each have their own responsibilities and tax payers expect them to do them. When kids can't play together nicely in a sandbox the parents need to have them removed. McGuinty already has his mandate to stay and play until 2011. Sometime in the next year and a half Harper/Flaherty will have to answer to voters. If everyone can play together nicely, we can have an effective strategy for dealing with the consequences of the United States tanking their own economy.
If only it could be that easy.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Learning from wins important
The Liberals have been putting the positive spin on keeping 3 of 4 seats in the byelection. There are now two more women in Parliament and they managed to avoid the embarrassment of losing another Liberal safe seat. The Conservatives are proud to add another seat while showing strong in Vancouver Quadra. The Green Party also held strong demonstrating that parties who fail to address the environment will have to deal with Green Party vote splitting. The NDP did not show well, emphasising how crowded things are on the left side of the political spectrum.
While publicly showing pride in the victories, Dion should be taking note on applying some of the lessons from the results.
Toronto Centre - When Bob Rae was booted out of office after running Ontario into the ground the NDP brand was damaged to the point that it will still be many years before many voters would ever consider voting NDP again. Rae has shown that it is possible to learn from mistakes and rebuild a political career even as disastrous as his. With the right strategy Dion may still be able to pick up credibility on the environmental portfolio.
Willowdale - Before yesterday, Martha Hall Findlay's political career consisted of losing twice to Belinda Stronach and pretending to be a contender for the Liberal leadership. Through these losses she has managed to build her reputation up to 'star candidate' status. The experience gained from losing can be used to launch a successful political career. Both Toronto ridings prove that it is possible to make a political comeback no matter how badly you screw up. Perhaps that is why John Tory is still hanging in as Ontario Conservative leader.
Desnethé--Missinippi - Churchill River - Stephane Dion has made it a priority to get more women to Ottawa. His strategy is to use his power as party leader to appoint hand picked candidates. He has also been shifting the party to the left. It seemed logical that a female, former NDP Provincial cabinet minister, that was just reelected would be a far better choice than the male candidate chosen by local riding association. On a number of occasions Dion has shown poor judgement in choosing hand picked candidates. The voters showed their displeasure by electing male Conservative Rob Clarke. The Liberals should adopt a new strategy for getting more female candidates.
Vancouver Quadra - This was supposed to be a safe Liberal riding. Voter turnout was the highest of the 4 ridings. The Liberals managed to hold on by a mere 151 votes. On the positive side Dion recognized that the seat was in trouble and made it a point to announce his support for a carbon tax that will not be called a tax in Vancouver last Friday. This was an excellent leadership decision that probably went a long way to holding the seat. The Liberals are having trouble holding on to their safe seats. They need to figure out why they have been alienating their core voters. It could be policy or it could be the politicking antics over scandals that are getting the party nowhere. These numbers need to be examined closely.
The byelections were a tiny snapshot of how some people feel the government is doing. The important thing is for the politicians to take to heart the messages the voters have been trying to send Ottawa. This will lead to better policy and better quality campaigns when the time comes for a federal election. The better the quality of each parties policies the better the outcome for Canada as a whole.
While publicly showing pride in the victories, Dion should be taking note on applying some of the lessons from the results.
Toronto Centre - When Bob Rae was booted out of office after running Ontario into the ground the NDP brand was damaged to the point that it will still be many years before many voters would ever consider voting NDP again. Rae has shown that it is possible to learn from mistakes and rebuild a political career even as disastrous as his. With the right strategy Dion may still be able to pick up credibility on the environmental portfolio.
Willowdale - Before yesterday, Martha Hall Findlay's political career consisted of losing twice to Belinda Stronach and pretending to be a contender for the Liberal leadership. Through these losses she has managed to build her reputation up to 'star candidate' status. The experience gained from losing can be used to launch a successful political career. Both Toronto ridings prove that it is possible to make a political comeback no matter how badly you screw up. Perhaps that is why John Tory is still hanging in as Ontario Conservative leader.
Desnethé--Missinippi - Churchill River - Stephane Dion has made it a priority to get more women to Ottawa. His strategy is to use his power as party leader to appoint hand picked candidates. He has also been shifting the party to the left. It seemed logical that a female, former NDP Provincial cabinet minister, that was just reelected would be a far better choice than the male candidate chosen by local riding association. On a number of occasions Dion has shown poor judgement in choosing hand picked candidates. The voters showed their displeasure by electing male Conservative Rob Clarke. The Liberals should adopt a new strategy for getting more female candidates.
Vancouver Quadra - This was supposed to be a safe Liberal riding. Voter turnout was the highest of the 4 ridings. The Liberals managed to hold on by a mere 151 votes. On the positive side Dion recognized that the seat was in trouble and made it a point to announce his support for a carbon tax that will not be called a tax in Vancouver last Friday. This was an excellent leadership decision that probably went a long way to holding the seat. The Liberals are having trouble holding on to their safe seats. They need to figure out why they have been alienating their core voters. It could be policy or it could be the politicking antics over scandals that are getting the party nowhere. These numbers need to be examined closely.
The byelections were a tiny snapshot of how some people feel the government is doing. The important thing is for the politicians to take to heart the messages the voters have been trying to send Ottawa. This will lead to better policy and better quality campaigns when the time comes for a federal election. The better the quality of each parties policies the better the outcome for Canada as a whole.
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