Poll puts Conservatives in majority territory. Is it time for a coalition?

The latest poll by Strategic Counsel put the Conservatives in majority territory.

• Conservatives: 41 per cent (+6)
• Liberals, 28 per cent (-2)
• NDP: 14 per cent (none)
• Green Party: 9 per cent (none)
• Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (-3)

Someone in on Canadian politics community suggested that the Liberals and NDP should run in the next election with the intent of forming a coalition. Their logic was a Liberal/NDP government would be better than what there is now and 41% Conservatives is one point less than 42% support for Liberals + NDP. Below is my response.

Without getting into the merits of a coalition government the reality of FPTP make this a poor decision for the Liberal and NDP.

First of all it would require an efficient ABC campaign where every vote in every riding is dedicated to a candidate that would beat the Conservatives.

It would require Iggy to campaign on the fact he can't beat Harper. This is a sign of weak leadership that would be unappetizing to voters.

A major problem in countries with pure PR and guaranteed coalitions government, is that voters never know what they are voting for. The issues that draw a person to a party may be the ones that get bartered away in the quest for power. While this is the current state of the Liberal platform, the differences between the parties should become cleared during an election. Voting for the ABC candidate takes away the ability for a voter to express their preference for differences Liberal or NDP policy.

The right side of the political spectrum were unable to defeat the Liberals due to vote splitting. Their merger helped put them on equal footing with the Liberals. A formal Liberal/NDP merger or the collapse of the BQ are the only realistic way to win an election on the basis of "We don't like the Conservatives" How important are the differences between the two parties? That is a strategic decision for the parties to make.

Netanyahu will be Prime Minister, Who will join the coalition?

Tzippi Livni chances of becoming Prime Minister have all but officially been eliminated. President Shimon Peres has been meeting with all 14 parties in the government to seek their recommendation for Prime Minister. The entire right wing block including Yisrael Betaynu has given their support to Netanyahu while, Meretz, Labour and the Arab parties have refused to endorse anybody.

The one glitch is that Yisrael Betaynu made their endorsement on condition that Kadima joined the government. Livni once again stated she would rather sit in the opposition rather than be in a right wing coalition. Peres will host a meeting tomorrow to try to convince both parties to form a National Unity government. Yisrael Betaynu's condition will be meaningless should they fail to agree.

Yisrael Betaynu leader, Avigdor Lieberman has made the argument that the country is best served with a government of Likud, Kadima and Yisrael Betaynu because it would be stable. He is right in that the three parties hold 68 seats on their own. Other parties would be welcome to join the coalition and add further stability. Netanyahu's natural right wing block is 11 seats shy of being able to form a government. Only Labour, Kadima and Yisrael Betaynu can fill the gap on their own. Labour has been ruled out and so are the other Left Wing and Arab Parties.

Yisrael Betaynu has a lot to gain with Kadima in the government. The religious parties are against his major platform planks. They are against reforming the system of marriage and conversions. They are against mandatory national service, which targets the misfeelings towards the Haredi community for their army/national service exemption. In the past Shas has held up attempts at electoral reform. They would lose power in any system that helps deliver more seats to the bigger parties. UTJ is a merger of 3 parties and went into the election with tons of internal fighting. They could only muster in 5 seats. They would also be hurt by most forms of electoral reform.

Yisrael Betaynu still holds a lot more power then people are giving them credit for. Any statements since the election have been to strengthen their influence on the government and their ability to bring in the vision that made them the third biggest party in the country. The Haredi parties need to compromise somewhere to hold a right wing government together. Livni has failed to get any other part to endorse her as Prime Minister. It is time for Kadima to spend some time in the opposition.

What will happen when all the dust settles? It is still too early to be certain.

Who will form the Government?

I received an e-mail today expressing concern about the rumoured deal of Kadima agreeing to terms of Yisrael Betaynu on a possible coalition agreement. I had argued that Yisrael Betaynu would do a better job anchoring Netanyahu to the right then the right wing supporters in his party that he managed to bury far down on the list. Here is my response:

While I share your concerns, I do not read the situation the same way. Under our system, the government is going to be formed based on backroom bargaining. Not knowing exactly what you are voting for is one of the major flaws in the system. Clarifying what might happen after the elections, was one of the main inspirations of having the debate. Anything that may or may not happen before a government is formed is pure speculation.

I believe that Bibi is going to be Prime Minister. Even if Livni gets the tap on the shoulder from Peres she has simply burned down too many bridges during and after the election campaign. Bibi has two options for forming a government. He can build on his right wing block. He could stick to his election campaign and try to form a National Unity government. Yisrael Betaynu, Shas and Labour are the only parties big enough to hold up a Likud/Kadima coalition on their own. If Likud came in with 33-36 seats (which is around where they were polling at the beginning of the election) he could have easily walked away with the promised unity government without any outside help.

I am greatly concerned about the political influence of Gimmel and Shas. The Likud/Shas alliance was well publicized in the closing days of the election. These special interest Haredi parties have a greater level of influence on government policy than their supporters justify. We recently had a Haredi coup on our mikvahs. There is still confusion of the outcome. There have been reports that the Israel Beit Din is refusing to recognize conversions of the Toronto Beit Din. The Toronto Beit Din is known far and wide for their strictness. These are all results of political influence yielded by Shas. Yisrael Betaynu promised to uphold Daati Leumi, Zionist values. I think they have a chance at slowing down the hard right religious shift, that is causing so much controversy. For myself this was a very important but overlooked election issue.

Bibi was given ideal conditions for running away with this election. He now has a lot of unhappy people inside the party that he has to answer to. Hopefully he will use this as an opportunity to refocus on what is important to his party and to Israel. If he had taken 35-40 seats in this election he would not have taken the time to try to fix his broken right wing.

Electoral reform is badly needed. It is the only way to force parties to focus on Israel's greater needs and prevent messes like this form happening in the future. Hopefully this will be the message the new government will learn from this election.

Prime Minister and the Queen

The Canadian parliamentary system is rich tradition. Technically the Queen's representative, the Governor General holds a lot of power. In most cases convention dictates how the Governor General is to exercise his/her power.

Last Thursday, presented a rare opportunity for the Michelle Jean to set the course of history. Her Prime Minister was on the brink of losing a confidence motion. Canadians had elected their new representatives less then seven weeks earlier. The current session of parliament had lasted less then two weeks. She would have to decide between three options. Each one was guaranteed to be the wrong decision.

Her first option was to porogue parliament. This would end the current session of parliament and a new one would be started in January. This move would allow the government to hide from a vote of confidence, a move that has been frowned on by Governer Generals in the past. It would also render the current session of parliament useless, as there was not enough time to get anything done.

The second and third option was to deny the request. In such a situation the Prime Minister would be expected to resign. She would have to choose between calling an election or allowing the opposition form a government.

Stephane Dion had clearly demonstrated that he was able to cobble together a coalition to take over the government. The move would make Stephane Dion Prime Minister. Two months earlier, the Liberals received the lowest popular vote since confederation. The Liberals lost 22 seats and the Conservatives went from a small to large minority government. The Conservatives won more seats with 50% of the vote then the Liberals won in total. Canadians had rejected the idea of Prime Minister Dion. Even Dion intended to step down as soon as a new leader was choosen.

Calling an election would be a fair way to decide the outcome. The Liberals had just spent a year refusing to bring down the government because Canadians didn't want an election. Would having two election in three months really help? What if the election results turned out exactly the same? The potential was there for time and money wasted, at a time when Canadians want politicians working to help with the financial crisis. From a democratic view this would be a great way to let the people decide. From an administrative view it could bring the government to a complete standstill. Places like Italy and Israel are more accustomed to such embarrasing scenarios.

Jean choose the poroguement option. She has further established that her role is to listen to the Prime Minister and carry out her ceremonial duties. Hindsight has shown that she has made the right decision. The coalition has fallen apart, proving that despite the documents signed it was held together on a weak foundation. The house will reconvene at the end of January with a thrown speech and budget. By then cooler heads will prevail so that the government can get some work done.