As expected the thrown speech was passed in Parliament by a vote of 126-79. The Liberals showed up and abstained from the vote. Many had expected the Liberal front bench to vote against the speech so that the Liberals objection would go on the public record without forcing an election. This move would have made it a close vote and the Liberals did not want to risk toppling the government by accident. This leaves a parliament that instead of working together will be busy preparing their own agendas in preparation for the government to fall.
Conservatives: This is the first time in history a government does not have to worry about the official opposition standing in their way. Even the Unionist governments of WWI and early 1920s had an opposition that stood up to the government. Dion's fear of an election will allow the Conservatives to push legislation through the house as if they had a majority. Unlike a majority governments they will be unable to add the necessary pressure to have legislation receive Royal Assent.
Liberals: They will be looking to get the legislation they object to over to committee where they will hope it dies before they they need to make tough decisions that could topple the government. If legislation does get through they can rely on their senate majority to prevent it from becoming law. In the last session of parliament the senate has proven to be effective in this manner.
Bloc Quebecois: The flames of hatred towards immigrants are being fanned in Quebec with the Liberal government's 'reasonable accommodation' committee and and the PQ (who sit last in the National Assembly) trying to generate support for banning non-French speaking immigrants from being able to petition the National Assembly or run for public office. Public backlash from outside Quebec will help foster Nationalist sentiments and the push for another referendum on separation.
NDP: They are now referring to themselves as Canada's effective opposition. They will continue to do their best to raise the concerns of Canadians. They seem to be taking a focus on dealing with poverty. With the constant Harper/Dion stand off they risk getting pushed to the sidelines on the public agenda.
The roles have been cast. It is now just a matter of time to see who blinks first and Canadians once again decide which direction the country should be going.
Showing posts with label throne speech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label throne speech. Show all posts
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Is being realistic cowardly?
As expected Stephane Dion announced that while his party opposes the thrown speech it is not a reason to have an election that nobody wants. The Liberals will make sure that it passes final reading. While it has not been announced how this would be done, it is likely that the shadow cabinet will vote against the speech and the backbenchers will either abstain or play hooky.
Dion's decision came under fire from NDP leader Jack Layton for not standing up to the Conservative government. This further illustrates the depth of the no-win situation that Harper has given to Dion. This may seem like a solid stance until reviewing the amendments to the thrown speech introduced by the Liberals.
The Liberal amendments introduced today are, establishing that failure to meet the 2012 Kyoto targets would be the Conservatives fault for not following the Liberal environment initiatives; announce that the Afghan mandate will not be extended past February 2009 in order for NATO to make necessary plans; recognize the Liberals did a good job fighting poverty and the current government has not; they should try to rectify this problem; stop taking the strong economy inherited from the Liberals for granted by reversing position on income trust and bring in corporate tax cuts.
It is obvious why either the NDP or the BQ would vote against most of these amendments. The Bloc immediately introduced motions to take the Liberal credit out of the amendments.
The NDP are expected to vote against the Afghan amendment because they want the mission to end now and not wait until 2009. If Layton really wants Dion to stand up to the Conservatives shouldn't he as well. Isn't committing to withdraw by 2009 still better than 2011? If he really wants Dion to topple the government getting this amendment through would be a good way to do it.
The bottom line is that it looks like the Liberals are going to take over the role from the BQ to prop up this government until they are in election form. The question is how many times can Dion take a knee before it starts to hurt in the polls.
Dion's decision came under fire from NDP leader Jack Layton for not standing up to the Conservative government. This further illustrates the depth of the no-win situation that Harper has given to Dion. This may seem like a solid stance until reviewing the amendments to the thrown speech introduced by the Liberals.
The Liberal amendments introduced today are, establishing that failure to meet the 2012 Kyoto targets would be the Conservatives fault for not following the Liberal environment initiatives; announce that the Afghan mandate will not be extended past February 2009 in order for NATO to make necessary plans; recognize the Liberals did a good job fighting poverty and the current government has not; they should try to rectify this problem; stop taking the strong economy inherited from the Liberals for granted by reversing position on income trust and bring in corporate tax cuts.
It is obvious why either the NDP or the BQ would vote against most of these amendments. The Bloc immediately introduced motions to take the Liberal credit out of the amendments.
The NDP are expected to vote against the Afghan amendment because they want the mission to end now and not wait until 2009. If Layton really wants Dion to stand up to the Conservatives shouldn't he as well. Isn't committing to withdraw by 2009 still better than 2011? If he really wants Dion to topple the government getting this amendment through would be a good way to do it.
The bottom line is that it looks like the Liberals are going to take over the role from the BQ to prop up this government until they are in election form. The question is how many times can Dion take a knee before it starts to hurt in the polls.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
A View from the Throne
There are many who believe that Stephan Harper is itching for an election and will do anything to force one to be called. The best strategy to achieve a majority government is to continue to govern responsibly. The strategy for this session of parliament is to continue to push through their mandate while exposing weaknesses in the Liberal Party. Today's throne speech gives parliament a mandate that the Liberals simply cannot accept. There is nothing significant in it that would make a strong platform for the Liberals to campaign against. The Conservatives have the funding and all hands on deck to effectively fight an election. The Liberals are divided and don't have the funds to run an effective campaign.
Afghanistan
The government announced that they would like to finish up operations in Afghanistan by 2011 extending the current mandate from February 2009. The Liberals have been demanding for months a clear message to NATO allies that the mission will not be extended. The Conservatives have appointed former Liberal Foreign Affairs Minister John Manley to lead the commission to decide what the government should do past the current mandate. It appears the government is creating a clear exit strategy while, the Liberals want a fixed date to just pack up and go home regardless of the consequences. As the Liberals develop their own plan for withdrawal, there may be very little difference between the Liberal and Conservative exit strategy besides the date.
Kyoto
The government has made it clear that the Kyoto targets are unattainable. The thrown speech wiped out the Clean Air Act that had been amended beyond recognition by the opposition parties in order to meet Kyoto targets. The government now has a clean slate to try to introduce environment legislation that is more appealing and realistic than the last two bills that failed to become law. For Stephane Dion to go home to his dog 'Kyoto' after allowing this declaration to be accepted further widdle down Dion's claim to be the champion of the environment. Combined with his agreement to let Green Party leader Elizabeth May to run unopposed will shift the environmental vote to shift to the Green Party and the NDP.
Law & Order
Canadians are looking for the government to do more about crime. The Conservatives are going to bring an Omnibus bill to bring back all of the legislation that did not pass (including raising age of sexual consent) because it was tied up in the senate. This will be a confidence motion. Bringing down the government for trying to reduce crime is just not going to be a popular move. If the Senate chooses once again to hold up this legislation, it will reflect poorly on the rest of the Liberal party.
Taxes
Tax cuts are on the way. Most of the details will be unveiled in the coming months. The government will move forward in reducing the GST by and additional 1%. This was originally promised to be done by 2010. This give the Conservatives credit for fulfilling a major election promise. In 1993 the Liberal red book promised to scrap the GST. Just as in the last election, the Liberals will look silly trying to defend the GST .
Limit spending on new programs in areas of Provincial jurisdiction
This is a symbolic law as it can be overturned by any future government that this law would interfere with. This is a law that mostly appeals in Quebec. Liberal House Leader Ralph Goodale expressed concerns about this idea. This is building on a law already on the books brought in by Stephane Dion in 1999. A flip flop on this law from Dion will not help in building his image as someone who should be Prime Minister.
Harper has set in motion a plan to fulfill his mandate without the need for another election. Any attempts to stop him will result in an election where Harper will seek a mandate directly from Canadians. There are still a lot of risks in this game of chicken. Harper appears to have placed himself in the best possible position no matter what the outcome is.
Afghanistan
The government announced that they would like to finish up operations in Afghanistan by 2011 extending the current mandate from February 2009. The Liberals have been demanding for months a clear message to NATO allies that the mission will not be extended. The Conservatives have appointed former Liberal Foreign Affairs Minister John Manley to lead the commission to decide what the government should do past the current mandate. It appears the government is creating a clear exit strategy while, the Liberals want a fixed date to just pack up and go home regardless of the consequences. As the Liberals develop their own plan for withdrawal, there may be very little difference between the Liberal and Conservative exit strategy besides the date.
Kyoto
The government has made it clear that the Kyoto targets are unattainable. The thrown speech wiped out the Clean Air Act that had been amended beyond recognition by the opposition parties in order to meet Kyoto targets. The government now has a clean slate to try to introduce environment legislation that is more appealing and realistic than the last two bills that failed to become law. For Stephane Dion to go home to his dog 'Kyoto' after allowing this declaration to be accepted further widdle down Dion's claim to be the champion of the environment. Combined with his agreement to let Green Party leader Elizabeth May to run unopposed will shift the environmental vote to shift to the Green Party and the NDP.
Law & Order
Canadians are looking for the government to do more about crime. The Conservatives are going to bring an Omnibus bill to bring back all of the legislation that did not pass (including raising age of sexual consent) because it was tied up in the senate. This will be a confidence motion. Bringing down the government for trying to reduce crime is just not going to be a popular move. If the Senate chooses once again to hold up this legislation, it will reflect poorly on the rest of the Liberal party.
Taxes
Tax cuts are on the way. Most of the details will be unveiled in the coming months. The government will move forward in reducing the GST by and additional 1%. This was originally promised to be done by 2010. This give the Conservatives credit for fulfilling a major election promise. In 1993 the Liberal red book promised to scrap the GST. Just as in the last election, the Liberals will look silly trying to defend the GST .
Limit spending on new programs in areas of Provincial jurisdiction
This is a symbolic law as it can be overturned by any future government that this law would interfere with. This is a law that mostly appeals in Quebec. Liberal House Leader Ralph Goodale expressed concerns about this idea. This is building on a law already on the books brought in by Stephane Dion in 1999. A flip flop on this law from Dion will not help in building his image as someone who should be Prime Minister.
Harper has set in motion a plan to fulfill his mandate without the need for another election. Any attempts to stop him will result in an election where Harper will seek a mandate directly from Canadians. There are still a lot of risks in this game of chicken. Harper appears to have placed himself in the best possible position no matter what the outcome is.
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